Odds of Crypto Market Structure Bill Passing This Year Drop to 40% on Polymarket
The likelihood of the CLARITY Act, a pivotal crypto market structure bill, becoming law this year has plummeted to 40% on prediction platform Polymarket. Traders now assign just a 42% chance of passage by 2026, signaling eroding confidence in Washington's ability to broker a deal between crypto firms and traditional banks.
Despite months of high-stakes negotiations at the WHITE House, including three major meetings between industry leaders and banking representatives, consensus remains elusive. The impasse centers on draft language addressing bank concerns in the "Yield and Interest Prohibition Principles" document—a sticking point that's survived multiple rounds of talks.
Public Optimism persists among officials, with Patrick Witt of the President's Council of Advisors for Digital Assets calling recent discussions "a big step forward." The administration maintains its March 1 deadline remains achievable if negotiations continue in good faith.
